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Mesoscale Discussion 1628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Parts of western/central NY/PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 151552Z - 151745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to increase
with time this afternoon, with damaging wind, isolated hail, and a
tornado or two all possible. Watch issuance is possible by early/mid
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV is moving across southeast lower MI
late this morning, with another MCV noted over central OH.
Downstream of these MCVs, filtered heating of a relatively moist
environment will result in MLCAPE increasing into the 1500-2000 J/kg
range. Meanwhile, relatively enhanced midlevel flow to the south of
the northernmost MCV will support effective shear of 30-40 kt into
the afternoon, resulting in a conditionally favorable environment
for organized convection across parts of western/central NY/PA. 

Ongoing convection over southern ON and northeast Lake Erie may
eventually spread into parts of western NY and over Lake Ontario
through late morning, which could pose a threat of isolated damaging
wind and perhaps some hail. Stronger redevelopment is expected by
early/mid afternoon from eastern Lake Erie into parts of western
NY/northwest PA, in closer proximity to the approaching MCV. Storm
coverage with southward extent is more uncertain, but eventual
development into a larger portion of western/central PA will also be
possible. 

A tendency toward storm clustering and possible development of a
co*pact MCS is currently expected, with a primary threat of damaging
wind gusts as storms move eastward through the afternoon. A couple
supercells will also be possible, especially early in the storm
evolution, which could pose a threat for isolated hail and possibly
a tornado or two. Watch issuance will beco*e increasingly possible
early this afternoon in order to address these threats.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   43847610 43157601 41807624 41037696 40857797 40897982
            41148030 42088030 42837976 43817873 43847610