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Mesoscale Discussion 1618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Areas affected...parts of AZ...southeast CA and far southern NV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142206Z - 142330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic wind gusts from 50-70 mph and small to marginally
severe hail from 0.75-1.25 inches in diameter will be possible with
slow-moving storms through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing near the higher
terrain of southern CA and southeast AZ, as well as along the
Mogollon Rim of AZ. A relatively moist air mass characterized by
predominately mid 50s to mid 60s surface dew points in lower
elevations is supporting a broad plume of moderate buoyancy with
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Convection over AZ is occurring with a
modest east-southeasterly mid-level flow regime, suggesting that
much of the convection will likely parallel the Rim over the next
few hours before potentially spreading into the portion of the CO
River along the AZ/NV border. Convection across southeast CA is
occurring within a weakly sheared, more southerly mid-level flow
regime, suggesting that storms will remain quasi-stationary and
struggle to appreciably intensify beyond a downburst threat.

..Grams/Gleason.. 07/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

LAT...LON   34020999 32400986 31611008 31311101 31651119 33531153
            34631338 34241493 33371594 33101639 33891703 35301608
            35921521 36281415 35731329 34020999