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Mesoscale Discussion 1617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Areas affected...northeast MT and northwest to far north-central ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 142138Z - 142315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Initial high-based thunderstorms over northeast Montana
should develop into supercells with threats for large hail and
isolated severe gusts during the early evening. A severe
thunderstorm watch issuance is likely by 22Z.

DISCUSSION...Increasingly agitated cumulus is noted near a 1008 mb
surface cyclone in the Glasgow vicinity. This corridor is likely to
initiate into several thunderstorms during the next couple hours as
large-scale ascent increases downstream of a shortwave trough
digging over southern AB into SK. Warm-moist sector temperature/dew
point spreads of 40-45 F suggest the environment is uncapped and
deeply mixed. The 19Z BIS sounding sampled ample speed shear above
700 mb within a west-northwest mid/upper flow regime which will
favor high-based supercell development. Initial storms should
produce a mix of large hail and severe gusts. Downstream
intensification and potentially more widespread coverage is
anticipated deeper into the evening as cells impinge on the more air
mass, characterized by mid 60s surface dew points roughly along and
east of the Lake Sakakawea region of the MO River. An isolated large
hail threat may also exist with warm-advection storms along the
surface warm front farther east near the international border of
northwest to north-central ND.

..Grams/Gleason.. 07/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   48440628 48890416 49180178 49120065 48650043 47880123
            47170321 46840447 46720541 46820583 47830633 48440628