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Mesoscale Discussion 1608
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...Western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 140556Z - 140700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and wind damage threat may continue
for several more hours across parts of southeast Minnesota into
western Wisconsin. A new weather watch to the southeast of WW 528
will likely need to be considered.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Minneapolis
shows a cluster of strong to severe storms over southeast Minnesota
and western Wisconsin. Most of the storms are multicells, although a
supercell is ongoing just to the northwest of Minneapolis. These
storms are located along an gradient of moisture and instability
that is oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast in the
vicinity of Minneapolis. The storms are likely being supported by a
minor shortwave trough that is moving through the upper Mississippi
Valley. In addition, a maximum in low-level flow is analyzed just to
the west of this cluster. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Minneapolis has
0-6 km shear near 50 knots with about 20 knots of speed shear from
the surface to about 4 km AGL. This, co*bined with the moderate
instability, should continue to support a severe threat over the
next several hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the
primary threats.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45299197 45559277 45679338 45659381 45489399 45339400
            45019376 44699321 44419267 44089202 43909172 43869138
            43959104 44219080 44529072 44909111 45299197