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Mesoscale Discussion 1605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Areas affected...northeast IA...southwest WI...northwest IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526...

Valid 140300Z - 140400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526
continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to localized severe gusts should remain
possible through about Midnight-1 am CDT along the portion of the
Mississippi River bordering Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois. An
additional severe thunderstorm watch appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...While the leading MCS in WI clearly weakened, the
trailing cluster appeared to have weakened for a time across
northeast IA before a recent uptick in reflectivity and cloud top
cooling over Clayton County, IA and Grant County, WI. The airmass
immediately to the south and southwest of this small cluster remains
amply unstable. But the bulk of the convection appears likely to
mostly overrun the remnant outflow boundary that is stalling in the
wake of the lead MCS. This merger process could yield another uptick
in convective intensity before broader weakening trends amid
increasing MLCIN occur overnight.

..Grams.. 07/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   43249071 42888993 42528912 42098895 41808920 41799012
            41889057 42139105 42429148 42829169 42979108 43249071