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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Sustained isolated supercell development, perhaps evolving into a
small organizing cluster of storms, may pose a risk for severe wind
and hail while spreading southeastward across eastern Nebraska and
adjacent portions of northeastern Kansas by mid evening.

...20Z Outlook Update...
Categorical and severe probabilistic lines have been adjusted some,
mostly to account for the progression of the synoptic and
sub-synoptic features, and ongoing trends concerning
destabilization.

Across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri Valley, the risk
for severe weather appears largely focused along a surface
front/zone of stronger differential surface heating, near the
southwestern periphery of larger-scale mid-level troughing which is
forecast to continue to gradually evolve across the northern Great
Plains into upper Mississippi Valley vicinity through 12Z Sunday. 
Probabilities have been increased along this zone, as it appears
that forcing for ascent, shear, and instability will be sufficient
to maintain southeastward propagation of sustained ongoing isolated
supercell development (currently south of O'Neill, NE).  It is
possible that this activity may grow upscale into a small organizing
convective system posing a more substantive risk for severe wind
gusts before diminishing later this evening.

Otherwise, severe probabilities are now generally focused along the
lee surface troughing across eastern Colorado into central Kansas.

Across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys, severe
weather potential is more unclear, but sizable mixed-layer CAPE (up
to 2000+ J/kg) appears to be developing ahead of an evolving frontal
wave across central Illinois into Indiana.  As mid-level heights
fall into this evening, models suggest that inhibition will weaken
sufficiently to allow for the initiation of thunderstorms.  Some of
these could be acco*panied by a risk for potentially damaging wind
gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/16/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022/

...Central NE...
A broad upper ridge is present over much of the central/southern
Plains and Rockies today.  Several minor shortwave troughs are
traversing the northern periphery of the ridge across the WY/NE
vicinity.  These features will interact with a weak surface boundary
extending from central MO into central NE, resulting in scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Most 12z CAM solutions show a cluster of thunderstorms forming by
late afternoon over central NE.  These storms will track
southeastward toward the KS border during the evening.  A SLGT risk
area was considered for this area.  However, abundant mid-level
clouds will slow daytime heating, and mid-level winds and
temperatures are not particularly favorable for severe storms. 
Locally gusty/damaging winds will be possible with the stronger
cells, but the overall coverage/intensity of these storms is
uncertain.  Therefore will maintain MRGL risk at this time and
reconsider at the 20z update.

...Eastern CO/western KS...
Hot surface temperatures will result in steep low-level lapse rates
and a deeply mixed boundary layer this afternoon over parts of
eastern CO and western KS.  Scattered high-based thunderstorms are
expected to develop and spread slowly eastward across this area
through the evening.  Gusty outflow winds are expected, but weak
flow aloft and limited large scale forcing should limit the areal
coverage of severe threat.

...VA/MD...
Warm/humid conditions over eastern VA/MD will result in isolated to
widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings show
poor mid-level lapse rates and weak flow in the lowest 6-7km, which
should limit convective organization and intensity.  Nevertheless, a
few cells may occasionally result in strong/damaging wind gusts
through early evening.

...AZ...
Water vapor imagery shows a weak vort max and plume of mid-level
moisture moving across northern Mexico.  This feature will likely
result in scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across
parts of southern and central AZ this afternoon and evening.  Hot
surface temperatures and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support
a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.