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Mesoscale Discussion 1493
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161817Z - 162015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
posing some threat for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
The severe risk may remain somewhat limited in coverage and
intensity, which makes the need for watch issuance uncertain at this
time.

DISCUSSION...A strong thunderstorm that developed late this morning
across far north-central NE is moving slowly southeastward early
this afternoon across Holt County. This area of convection developed
near a weak surface boundary, which may tend to sag southward across
parts of northeast NE with time, in conjunction with ongoing storms
and related outflow. A differential heating zone is likely to be
maintained along the western flank of ongoing storms across
north-central NE, which may aid in development of additional storms
later this afternoon. 

Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow will help to maintain 30-40
kt of effective shear across the region this afternoon, which, in
conjunction with moderate buoyancy, will support the potential for a
few organized storms. A couple of southeastward-moving supercells
and/or small clusters will be possible. However, despite the
potential for organized storms, the magnitude of the severe threat
remains somewhat uncertain. Warm midlevel temperatures and rather
weak midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit the hail potential,
while the severe-wind threat is also somewhat uncertain, due to
relatively modest low-level lapse rates and weak low-level flow. 

Despite the environmental weaknesses noted above, the strongest
storms this afternoon will pose at least an isolated severe hail and
wind risk, especially where somewhat greater heating and
destabilization can occur this afternoon prior to storm arrival.
Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, but will be
reconsidered if short-term observational and guidance trends support
a more robust threat.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42709875 42529784 42059717 41659707 41069742 40969846
            41139943 41139945 41420011 41870035 42280042 42770040
            42939994 42779912 42709875