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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

The elevated area within the northern Great Basin into southeast
Oregon was expanded to account for recent trends in guidance. Brief
periods of critical weather are probable during the afternoon.
Ensemble guidance shows greater confidence in this occurring in
southeastern Oregon.

Some mid-level moisture will also move farther northward into parts
of Idaho. An isolated storm or two could produce lightning over
areas of dry fuels in southern Idaho. PWAT values would suggest a
more mixed storm mode, though storm motions may be fast enough to
mitigate rainfall accumulation locally. Coverage is still low enough
to withhold highlights.

..Wendt.. 07/16/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022/

...Synopsis...
On the periphery of the dominant mid-level anticyclone across the
Southwest, a Pacific trough will deepen as it moves inland over the
Northwest Coast Sunday. A cold front will move ashore supporting
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Cascades. At the same
time, gusty westerly winds will develop through the higher terrain
into the northern Great Basin. A dry and warm airmass beneath the
upper ridge will support elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions Sunday. 

...Northern Great Basin/southern Cascades...
As the upper trough moves inland and deepens Sunday, mid-level flow
is forecast to accelerate across much of the southern Cascades and
northern Great Basin. Model guidance shows 20 mph sustained winds
are likely with locally higher gusts near and through the higher
terrain gaps across southeastern OR, into northern NV and
southwestern ID. Dry and warm conditions on the edge of the upper
ridge will support widespread surface humidity below 15%. The
overlap of gusty downslope winds and warm/dry surface conditions
should support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire
weather concerns, given dry area fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...