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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging and the acco*panying hot/dry surface conditions
will remain firmly anchored over portions of the Southwest and
southern High Plains D2/Saturday. A subtle shortwave trough along
the periphery of the ridge is forecast to move northeastward into
southern Canada early, temporarily slowing mid-level flow over the
Great Basin and Northwest. Late in the period, a second Pacific
trough and stronger mid-level flow will approach the West Coast
along the northwestern periphery of the dominate anticyclone. 

...Northern Great Basin...
Similar to D1/Friday, modest southwesterly flow off the Sierra will
overspread dry and warm surface conditions across portions of
northern NV, southeastern OR and ID D2/Saturday. Low-level flow is
forecast to be weaker initially as mid and upper-level winds slacken
behind the departing shortwave trough. Winds may increase later in
the day as a second trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Coast by
early evening. However, the unfavorable overlap with the diurnal
cycle casts some doubt on the longevity of sustained fire weather
conditions across the northern Great Basin and southern Cascades.
Hi-res and ensemble guidance show only modest probabilities for
surface winds sustained greater than 15 mph coincident with RH below
15%. However, area fuels remain quite dry, suggesting some Elevated
fire weather concerns, despite the potential for more borderline
winds. Locally stronger winds through terrain gaps may also result
in localized critical fire weather conditions.

...Southern High Plains...
Very warm conditions are again forecast beneath the center of the
mid-level anticyclone across the Panhandles and southwestern KS. Max
surface temps are forecast in excess of 100F supporting low surface
RH below 20% and continued drying of area vegetation. Low-level flow
is expected to remain modest, but deep mixing and southerly return
flow should support occasional gusts to 15-20 mph. Locally elevated
fire weather conditions appear possible within desiccated grasses
and shrubbery.

..Lyons.. 07/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...