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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....

...SUMMARY...
The greatest conditional severe-weather concern is across parts of
the Dakotas and western Minnesota, where large hail and damaging
gusts are possible from late afternoon through tonight.

...Discussion...
Aside from minor line adjustments to reflect current convective
evolution, no substantive changes are being included in the outlook
at this time.

..Goss.. 07/14/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022/

...Northern Plains this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over southern SK/MB is cresting the
midlevel ridge and will begin to move southeastward toward MN this
evening into tonight.  Some elevated convection is ongoing as of
late morning over northeast ND, in a zone of weak warm advection
near a northwest-southeast oriented warm front.  The potential for
diurnal, surface-based convection is in question along the front,
given that surface temperatures will need to warm to 90F or above to
remove convective inhibition across east/southeast ND, and clouds
are upstream from this area now.  If storms manage to form, the
environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing
large hail/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.  However, the more
probable scenario will be for slightly elevated storms/clusters to
form along the immediate cool side of the front tonight, and spread
southeastward toward western MN, with an attendant threat for large
hail/damaging winds.

...Southern MT vicinity this afternoon through tonight...
Daytime heating and local terrain circulations are expected to
initiate at least widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
across southern MT, in conjunction with subtle speed maxima within
the monsoonal moisture plume around the northern periphery of the
Four Corners high aloft.  Westerly midlevel flow with relatively
long/straight hodographs, deep mixing/inverted-v profiles, and
modest buoyancy will support the potential for isolated severe
outflow gusts and marginally severe hail with small clusters and
high-based supercells from southern MT this afternoon into
northeastern WY this evening.

...TX area this afternoon/evening...
A cluster of storms is ongoing as of late morning across
northeast/east central TX, in association with a diffuse midlevel
trough and pocket of slightly cooler midlevel temperatures.  Given
the organized nature of the cold pool with these storms and weak
northeasterly midlevel steering flow, the storms will likely persist
through the afternoon while spreading southwestward.  The 12z FWD
sounding depicted a hybrid microburst environment, and strong
surface heating in advance of the storms will result in steepening
low-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg),
and DCAPE in the range of 1000-1500 J/kg.  A few damaging/severe
outflow gusts will be the main threat this afternoon through late
evening.

...Southeast/FL this afternoon/evening...
A weak midlevel trough persists from GA to the Carolinas, and a
separate closed low is moving westward over the north coast of Cuba.
Somewhat enhanced midlevel west-southwesterly flow will support the
potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and isolated wind
damage from southeast GA to the Carolina coasts this afternoon.  Sea
breeze convection is likely across the FL peninsula, with easterly
flow aloft favoring storm motion and subsequent outflow mergers
inland from the southeast FL coast to the west coast sea breeze. 
The strongest storms will be capable of producing isolated damaging
downbursts, as well as marginally severe hail, given the strong
buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg), DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and
slightly cooler midlevel temperatures co*pared to previous days. 

...Eastern MA to southeastern ME this afternoon...
Pockets of stronger surface heating, weak low-level convergence
along a cold front and local sea breeze boundaries could support
widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon.  Though
buoyancy will remain modest, somewhat enhanced midlevel flow and
effective bulk shear in excess of 30 kt could support isolated
strong/damaging gusts.