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Mesoscale Discussion 1481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Areas affected...Portions of north FL and southern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141845Z - 142115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur as
thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed
along/south of a front across parts of north FL and southern GA.
Weak low-level flow strengthens very modestly at mid/upper levels
based on recent VWPs from KTLH/KVAX, with a general eastward
co*ponent to ongoing activity. A moderately unstable and moist
low-level airmass, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg, is present across
the warm sector. Low-level lapse rates are beco*ing modestly
steepened as strong diurnal heating continues, and occasional strong
to damaging winds will be possible with any convective downdrafts.
Regardless, weak effective bulk shear should limit overall
convective intensity and organization through the rest of the
afternoon, with pulse to loosely organized multicell thunderstorms
possible. Therefore, watch issuance is not expected.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30548474 30728470 31078427 31298366 31348331 31418306
            31818275 32148219 32108169 31998125 31748104 31518112
            31228124 30838140 30468133 30168149 30028175 30068397
            30158424 30348459 30548474