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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

The primary change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to
add isolated dry thunderstorm highlights across parts of central to
northern Nevada. Similar to the previous outlook, the latest
guidance consensus continues to show rising precipitable water
values through tomorrow, supporting overall wetter thunderstorms.
However, guidance does show a narrow corridor for high-based dry
thunderstorms across portions of central and northern Nevada along
the periphery of the monsoonal moisture plume, characterized by
0.5-0.75 inch precipitable water values and inverted-v forecast
soundings extending up to 600 mb in altitude. The presence of very
dry fuels (i.e. 90th or higher percentile forecast ERCs) and
associated lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations in this
corridor necessitates the addition of isolated dry thunderstorm
highlights.

Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with
wetter storms expected elsewhere across the Great Basin/Interior
West and Elevated surface winds/RH likely by afternoon peak heating
across northwest Nevada and in southwest Kansas.

..Squitieri.. 07/14/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022/

...Synopsis...
A stagnant upper-air regime will continue to limit the potential for
widespread fire weather threats for Friday. Regional concerns are
expected to emerge across northwest Nevada and southwest Kansas
Friday afternoon, but will likely remain limited in nature owing to
weak flow aloft. Dry thunderstorms will remain possible across
eastern NV into far western UT, but an increasing probability of
wetting storms limits confidence in the dry-lightning threat. 

...Northwest Nevada...
Another day of modest southwesterly flow is expected over the
northern Sierra Nevada. This will allow for breezy and dry downslope
conditions across northwest NV and into far southeast OR/southwest
ID. Winds near 15 mph appear most likely with RH values as low as
10% possible. Given the limited rainfall chances through Friday
afternoon and antecedent dry fuels, elevated conditions appear
probable. Breezy winds through the upper Snake River Plains in
eastern ID may allow for areas of elevated conditions, but modest
confidence in the wind forecast coupled with recent rainfall
preclude an eastward expansion of the risk area. 

...Southwest Kansas...
A stalling surface trough/cool front across the central Plains will
allow for another day of southerly winds across western KS. Most
guidance suggests that sustained winds near 15 mph are likely, but
given the co*mon low bias in wind speeds under such dry return-flow
patterns, winds between 15-20 mph appear more likely with gusts up
to 25-30 mph. Hot temperatures near 100 F will yield afternoon RH
values between 20-25% over a region with drying grasses, which
should support elevated fire weather conditions.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Lingering monsoonal moisture on the western periphery of the Four
Corners ridge will maintain thunderstorm chances through Friday
afternoon for eastern NV and far western UT. Forecast soundings
continue to show around a 2 km depth of dry sub-cloud layers, but a
slight increase in PWAT values to 0.8 to 1.2 inches is noted in most
solutions. While a few dry thunderstorms are possible, this
bolstered moisture hints at an increasing propensity for wet
thunderstorms. Latest ensemble and hi-res deterministic solutions
support this idea with a stronger QPF signal for Friday afternoon
co*pared to previous days. As such, no risk highlights are
introduced, though thermodynamic conditions will continue to be
monitored.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...