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Mesoscale Discussion 1479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141620Z - 141845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A loosely organized co*plex of thunderstorms may pose an
isolated threat for strong to damaging winds through the afternoon.
Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of convection developed overnight across
northeast TX on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered
over the Southwest. This cluster has persisted through the morning
while moving slowly southwestward. Although low/mid-level flow
across much of TX is expected to remain modest, around 15-25 kt of
northeasterly mid-level winds should encourage the ongoing
thunderstorms to continue progressing southwestward across parts of
central TX through the early afternoon. A rather moist airmass is in
place ahead of this activity, with surface dewpoints generally in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Strong diurnal heating will likely
continue over the next several hours based on recent visible
satellite trends, and instability should further increase in tandem
with steepening low-level lapse rates. Even with deep-layer shear
remaining modest, the moderate to strong instability forecast to
develop, including substantial DCAPE with inverted-v forecast
soundings, should support an isolated risk for strong to damaging
winds. Still, current expectations are for this damaging wind threat
to remain fairly isolated, and watch issuance appears unlikely at
this time.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31079524 30099569 29959660 30039761 30559855 31389908
            32149912 32879871 33099799 33079691 32549686 31669638
            31079524