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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
The greatest severe-weather concern for today is over parts of the
Dakotas and western Minnesota, where large hail and damaging gusts
are possible from late afternoon through evening.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale mid/upper-level pattern will remain dominated by a
strong anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies, with mean
troughing from Greenland across QC to the Lower Great Lakes and
Appalachians.  A series of small vorticity maxima (some
enhanced/induced by prior convection) are embedded in the larger,
positively tilted troughing over the Southeast, and will move slowly
northeastward today across that outlook area.  Meanwhile, a
northern-stream perturbation was evident in moisture-channel imagery
from extreme southeastern AB southwestward over northwestern MT. 
This feature should penetrate the mean ridge position over central
MT today, then turn east-southeastward across ND this evening.  By
12Z, the associated trough should extend from the MN Arrowhead/North
Shore region southwestward to southeastern SD.

At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a wavy, quasistationary front
from the Hampton Roads area across northwestern SC, northern GA,
central AL, and central LA, to north-central TX.  Outside
mesobeta-scale oscillations and convective modulations, little
overall movement of this boundary is expected through the period. 
Another quasistationary front was drawn from southern NJ across WV,
southern parts of IL/IN to southern IA, beco*ing a warm front
northwestward over eastern SD and central/western ND.  The northern
Plains segment of this boundary should move northward through the
remainder of the morning then decelerate/stall.  That will occur as
a surface trough deepens through the day from the western/central
Dakotas to a low moving roughly east-southeastward across northern
NE.

...Northern Plains to northern Rockies...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected episodically
throughout today and into this evening on both sides of the front,
with activity along and to its south potentially beco*ing
surface-based.  Convection may develop over the outlook area and/or
move southeastward from nearby parts of Canada, and focused further
by relatively maximized low-level convergence, storm-relative
boundary-layer winds and moisture near and east of the surface
trough.

A low-level moist axis will linger along or just south of the
surface warm front, manifest by mid-upper 60s F surface dew points. 
Modified model soundings maximize buoyancy atop the moist plume,
beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, with MLCAPE reaching
2000-3000 J/kg around strongest afternoon warming.  Effective-shear
magnitudes around 40-50 kt should be co*mon over the region in
support of convective organization. Any discrete storms that can
persist near the front and moist axis may beco*e supercellular, with
a conditional significant-hail and tornado threat, but that
potential still is too uncertain to warrant unconditional
probabilities higher than marginal levels.  More likely, one or more
clusters of thunderstorms will develop this evening into tonight and
move southeastward, offering severe wind/hail potential.

Farther west across southern MT and northern WY, strong heating of
higher terrain will erode MLCINH this afternoon, contributing to
widely scattered thunderstorm development.  Lower-elevation surface
dew points in the mid 40s to lower 50s F are possible downshear,
even with deep mixing of the boundary layer.  The southern fringes
of large-scale ascent/cooling aloft -- related to the passing
shortwave trough -- also should support convective potential over
the area.  Pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop a deep subcloud
layer with large DCAPE, will support potential for isolated severe
gusts/hail.  Long, relatively straight hodographs are forecast, with
around 35-45 kt effective-shear magnitudes.

...Southeast...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop from midday
through at least early evening along and south of the front,
offering the potential for sporadic damage and isolated, marginally
severe gusts.  A collection of boundaries will focus convective
potential today, including the front itself, prefrontal surface
trough, outflow boundaries, and sea breezes.  These, in tandem with
strong surface diurnal heating, will provide sufficient lift to
overco*e modest ambient MLCINH, amid rich low-level moisture.
Surface dew points from the upper 60s to mid 70s F will be co*mon,
offsetting modest midlevel lapse rates enough to support 1500-2000
J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE by midafternoon.  low/middle-level
winds and shear will be weak, and nearly unidirectional from the
southwest over most of the area.  As such, convection should be
multicellular, with greatest gust potential in both heavily
water-loaded single downdraft pulses and small clusters.

..Edwards/Leitman.. 07/14/2022