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Mesoscale Discussion 0486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Southern Indiana...Far Northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 132251Z - 140045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat with potential for wind damage and large
hail will continue across parts of the Ohio Valley to the north of
WW 125. Weather watch may need to be considered this evening across
the area.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Louisville, Kentucky
shows a north-to-south convective line with strong to severe
thunderstorms located within it. The northern end of the line is in
southern Indiana, where instability is weak. The RAP is analyzing a
narrow corridor of instability from central Kentucky into far
southern Indiana with MLCAPE estimated in the 500 to 700 J/kg range.
In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Louisville has 0-6 shear around 65
knots with some turning of the winds with height in the lowest 2 km.
This co*bined with the instability should be enough to continue a
severe threat in southern Indiana early this evening. The threat
could affect far northern Kentucky as the line moves eastward. At
this time, there is some uncertainty as to how long the severe
threat will persist. If it looks line can remain organized over the
next hour, then weather watch issuance will need to be considered.

..Broyles/Grams.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38528470 38328596 38208659 38218710 38388734 38918736
            39518674 39498506 38528470