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Mesoscale Discussion 0485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Far Southeast Texas/Southern and Central Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 132211Z - 140015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop across parts of far southeast
Texas and south-central Louisiana over the next couple of hours.
Weather watch will need to be considered as confidence increases
concerning the scenario.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from the Fort Polk, Louisiana
radar shows a northeast-to-southwest oriented line of strong to
severe thunderstorms in northwestern Louisiana. This line is ongoing
in a very moist and unstable airmass, where surface dewpoints are in
the lower 70s F and MLCAPE is in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range,
according to the RAP. At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is evident
on water vapor imagery across the Arklatex. The southern edge of
this feature is in far southeast Texas at this time. As this moves
eastward across southern and central Louisiana late this afternoon
and early this evening, increasing large-scale ascent could be
sufficient for scattered thunderstorm development. In addition, a
belt of strong mid-level flow is evident across north-central Texas
extending east-northeastward into western and northern Louisiana.
The southern edge of the stronger flow is in southwest Louisiana. As
this spreads eastward over the next couple of hours, deep-layer
shear will beco*e more favorable for severe storms. If discrete
cells can initiate, supercells with large hail and wind damage will
be possible. Wind damage could also occur with line segments that
can beco*e organized.

..Broyles/Grams.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29649139 29569224 29599282 29739329 29769379 29879417
            30159442 30599457 30859446 31009410 31109336 31229271
            31239221 31009181 30729135 30409115 29649139