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Mesoscale Discussion 0484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...southeastern Arkansas...northwest Mississippi...and
southwestern Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...

Valid 132200Z - 132330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing QLCS across far eastern AR should consolidate
further with semi-discrete convection ahead of it near the MS River.
Strong low-level shear and sufficient buoyancy should continue to
support a risk for strong damaging wind gusts and embedded
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...As of 2200 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis
showed a large QLCS ongoing ahead of a cold front across
east/southeastern AR and portions of western TN. Ahead of this line,
several attempts at semi-discrete initiation have resulted in a
number of storms/interactions over northwest MS. Located at the
northern extent of the deep surface moisture (upper 60s/low 70s F
dewpoints) the environment ahead of the line and other storms
remains moderately unstable (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and strongly
sheared.

Recent radar tends have hinted at the intensification of mid-level
rear-inflow jet within the bowing segment southwest of Memphis. This
suggests an increase in forward speed is likely over the next hour.
The QLCS should overtake the northern extent of the semi-discrete
convection as it moves quickly eastward across northwestern MS. As
the QLCS consolidates, 0-1km shear in excess of 30 kt from regional
VAD VWPs suggests the environment remains favorable for embedded
tornadoes with the line. The development of the bowing segment also
supports high confidence in the potential for damaging wind gusts
over the next couple of hours.

..Lyons.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35148970 35218897 35178848 35018825 34858813 34468841
            34218880 33978917 33758981 33599046 33459110 33519181
            34509095 34999028 35148970