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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe hail and wind will be possible across parts of the northern
Plains and mid Missouri Valley from late afternoon through evening.
A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop in parts of the
Carolinas, Georgia and Florida during the day.

...Southern MT...Northern Plains...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to round the upper high
as it moves from MT into ND during the day, and across MN overnight.
This feature will result in increasing deep-layer shear, as well as
minor cooling aloft with 500 mb temperatures to -10 C.

A surface trough will deepen during the day, extending from eastern
MT into central SD and NE by 21Z. Meanwhile, southeasterly surface
winds will exist across the Dakotas, maintaining boundary-layer
moisture.

Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass over MT where low
50s F dewpoints and steep lapse rates will lead to over 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Storms will initiate over southwest/south-central MT by 21Z,
and move quickly east through sunset. Straight hodographs and steep
lapse rates through the midlevels will favor hail, with splitting
cells possible. A few damaging gusts may occur as well.

Farther east into the Dakotas and MN, sporadic showers and storms
are possible in a weak warm advection zone east of the surface
trough by midday, most likely elevated in nature. By around 00Z,
surface-based storms are expected to develop from southern Manitoba
into ND. Ample instability and deep-layer shear will favor one or
more clusters of storms. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 0-6km shear
over 40 kt will favor cells at first producing damaging hail, then
an increasing wind threat through the evening as they move
southeastward across eastern SD, western MN and eventually IA.

...Southeast...
Heating of a very moist air mass will result in substantial
instability again today across the Southeast, with cool midlevel
temperatures for the season on the southern end of upper trough to
the north. Shear will be weak, but scattered to numerous storms are
possible across much of FL, southern GA, and the eastern Carolinas
as sea breezes develop. Isolated damaging gusts will be possible,
with the threat ending close to 00Z.

..Jewell/Moore.. 07/14/2022