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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms, associated with strong wind gusts and hail,
will be possible across parts of the northern High Plains on Friday.
Other storms with marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible
in parts of the Upper Midwest.

...Northern High Plains...
A large area of high pressure will be located across the
southwestern and central United States on Friday. A minor shortwave
trough is forecast to move over the northern side of the
anticyclone. Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave, along
with surface heating, will result in scattered thunderstorms
developing in the higher terrain of western and southern Montana
early Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to move eastward
across eastern Montana during the late afternoon and early evening.
A pocket of moderate instability could develop in eastern Montana,
where 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 8.0 and 8.5
C/km. In addition, low levels are forecast to be nearly dry
adiabatic in parts of eastern Montana. This environment will likely
support a marginal hail and wind-damage threat. Parts of the western
Dakotas may also be impacted by mid to late evening.

...Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough will move southeastward across the Upper Midwest
on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southward across the upper Mississippi and Mid Missouri Valleys
during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate
instability is expected to develop from Iowa into southern Wisconsin
by afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 2000 to 3000
J/kg range. Thunderstorms should form just ahead of the shortwave
trough, and near the instability axis during the afternoon. Steep
mid-level lapse rates co*bined with moderate deep-layer shear could
be enough for a marginal wind-damage and hail threat late Friday
afternoon.

..Broyles.. 07/14/2022