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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...Synopsis...
The dominant upper ridge over the Four Corners region will remain in
place for the next several days and will limit overall
boundary-layer and surface wind speeds. However, this feature will
also promote hot conditions across the Southern Plains into the
Southwest and diurnal thunderstorm chances across the Great Basin
and Four Corners region. This synoptic regime will limit the
potential for widespread fire weather concerns, but will support
regional threats across parts of Nevada and western Kansas. 

...Nevada...
Despite a generally weak synoptic regime, deep diurnal
boundary-layer mixing, coupled with downslope flow off the Sierra
Nevada, will likely result in sustained winds around 15 mph across
northwest to north-central NV this afternoon. Poor overnight RH
recovery is noted across this region, and afternoon RH values should
once again fall into the teens for much of the risk area. While
critical wind speeds are not expected given weak flow aloft, fuels
remain receptive across the region and will support areas of
elevated fire weather conditions. Such conditions may overlap with
parts of northeast NV that received lightning strikes Wednesday
afternoon, posing a threat for holdover fires, though confidence in
the northeastern extent of dry/windy conditions is somewhat low.

...West Kansas...
A low-amplitude mid-level wave cresting the upper ridge is
supporting modest lee pressure falls along the northern High Plains.
This trough is expected to consolidate into a weak low over the
central Plains, and will support another day of a dry return-flow
pattern across western KS. The low wind-speed bias that is co*mon in
most guidance under this type of pattern is noted in yesterday's
surface observations with observed gusts co*ing in stronger than
anticipated by most deterministic and ensemble solutions. For today,
a slightly stronger regional pressure gradient should yield winds
closer to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph (after accounting for
the noted low bias). Afternoon minimum RH values in the low 20s
appear likely over a region with ERC values near or above the 80th
percentile (outside of where thunderstorms tracked Wednesday
evening). This should support areas of elevated conditions this
afternoon.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Regional 00 UTC soundings continue to sample steep mid-level lapse
rates and ample monsoonal moisture across the Four Corners region
and diminishing moisture quality with western extent into Nevada.
This matches well with latest satellite-based total precipitable
water estimates, which show PWAT values between 0.75 to 0.9 inches
across eastern NV. This thermodynamic regime supported a mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms yesterday (Wednesday) across NV and western
UT. Rainfall amounts increased with eastward extent into central UT
(per MRMS QPE estimates). A similar regime is expected for today
with isolated dry/wet thunderstorms across central to eastern NV
where PWAT values near or below 0.75 inches are expected, and fuels
remain receptive after receiving only localized pockets of wetting
rainfall on Wednesday.

..Moore.. 07/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...