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Mesoscale Discussion 1477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...parts of central and eastern MT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467...468...

Valid 140040Z - 140145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467, 468
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts will continue as a
thunderstorm cluster moves east through eastern MT during the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of thunderstorms over the
eastern part of central MT moving eastward early this evening. 
Surface temperatures have been slow to cool with temperatures
remaining in the 90-100 deg F range as of 6pm MDT.  The 00z Great
Falls raob showed meager buoyancy (less than 100 J/kg MLCAPE) but
1900 J/kg MLCAPE was sampled by the Glasgow raob.  Based on the
amount of convective overturning/outflow across central MT, the
severe risk has diminished considerably over the past 1-2 hours. 
Farther east, the undisturbed/unmodulated boundary layer over
eastern MT will likely be conducive for isolated to widely scattered
severe gusts this evening.  Localized gusts may exceed 75 mph near
the stronger cores/downdrafts as convective outflow continues to
surge eastward over the next few hours.

..Smith.. 07/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46830877 47730823 48150705 48030545 47530512 47060523
            46260575 46110659 46340807 46830877