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Mesoscale Discussion 1476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132356Z - 140200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a severe wind and hail
risk this evening. This threat should remain very localized; a watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across parts of northwest
KS within the past couple of hours. This activity is developing
within a low-level thermal ridge on the periphery of a thermal low
to the west across eastern CO. Weak ascent through this region has
resulted in slow maturation of this convection, but recent data from
KGLD shows robust cells that have demonstrated some degree of
persistence. Additional, but weaker, convection is noted across
parts of southwest NE as well within a cumulus field. Given the weak
forcing for ascent, it is unclear if this activity will persist for
more than 1-2 hours. However, the environment across the region is
conditionally supportive of organized convection with around 1000
J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs based on RAP forecast
soundings. Temperatures near 100 F with dewpoints in the 50s suggest
a deep, well-mixed boundary layer is in place that could support
severe downburst winds, and the favorable wind profile may allow for
severe hail with the more organized storms. Despite the environment,
confidence in storm duration and coverage is low, therefore a watch
is not expected.

..Moore/Grams.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38640165 39260184 40260181 40900147 41190097 41120011
            40789991 40189987 39509995 38920011 38600043 38480108
            38640165