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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and isolated hail
remain likely across central and northeast Montana through evening.
Isolated strong wind gusts or marginal hail may also occur from
southwest Mississippi into eastern Texas.

...MT...
A cluster of storms will continue to move east/northeast across MT,
where strong heating has led to steep lapse rates, beneath moderate
westerlies aloft. The 00Z GGW soundings shows ample instability to
maintain a severe wind or hail threat, and the Slight Risk has been
expanded into northeast MT. For more information see mesoscale
discussion 1477.

...Southwest MS into eastern TX...
Strong instability remains across the region this evening with 70s F
dewpoints resulting in MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg. Scattered
cells remain ongoing this evening from southern AR into northern LA
and just west into TX, aided by peak heating. Some of these cells
may produce marginal hail or isolated severe downbursts for a few
this evening, but storm coverage is likely to gradually wane with
time.

..Western KS...
Several storms are currently ongoing over northwest KS, near a weak
surface trough and where temperatures rose above 100 F. These cells
are within a weak northwest flow regime aloft, with southerly
surface winds aiding inflow. The 00Z DDC sounding shows an uncapped
air mass and boundary-layer depth to nearly 700 mb. As such,
isolated severe hail or gusts may occur for a few more hours. For
more information see mesoscale discussion 1476.

..Jewell.. 07/14/2022