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Mesoscale Discussion 1475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana to southern Mississippi and
western Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466...

Valid 132241Z - 140045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds and sporadic large hail
will continue into the evening hours. A few storms may spread south
and west of WW 466, but the threat will most likely remain too
isolated for a downstream watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along and ahead of a
well-established cold pool/outflow boundary from northeast LA into
southern MS and western AL. Regional WSR-88D reflectivity and echo
top trends show that individual cell longevity has been limited -
likely owing to the meager deep-layer shear - but a few storms
continue to exhibit short bursts of intense convection (based on
GOES IR cloud-top trends). A few recent wind damage and hail reports
bear out this assessment. 

Latest mesoanalysis estimates continue to show that the downstream
environment is largely uncapped with MLCAPE values between 2000-3000
J/kg. This environment will continue to support intense, but
short-lived convection as storms propagate to the south and west on
the leading edge of the cold pool. Wind damage and sporadic large
hail will continue to be the main hazards. This threat may be
maximized across parts of northeast LA over the next 1-2 hours where
instability is co*paratively higher and low-level lapse rates remain
in excess of 8 C/km. Storms will likely propagate out of WW 466
through the evening hours, but the overall severe threat will most
likely remain fairly limited and preclude the need for a downstream
watch.

..Moore.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31238918 31478785 31708722 32158703 32688700 32998732
            32928770 32728808 32468853 32468956 32899058 33359100
            33429134 33329190 32889219 32239227 31759206 31519157
            31349106 31239046 31258985 31238918