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Mesoscale Discussion 1474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...east-central and northeast MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 132200Z - 132300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for widely scattered severe gusts will likely
spread into northeast MT this evening.  Severe gusts ranging from
60-85 mph are possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows clear skies over
east-central and northeast MT this afternoon.  A couple of
thunderstorm clusters are located farther southwest and west over
the central portion of the state.  Surface conditions show hot
temperatures from Billings northeast to Glasgow (mid to upper 90s)
but an increase in low-level moisture is evident in surface
dewpoints (ranging from near 50 deg in central MT to the lower 60s
in northeast MT).  As the storm activity gradually moves into the
richer low-level moisture over the next couple of hours, additional
storms and a greater propensity for both coverage of severe gusts
and an increase in intensity is expected.  Model forecast 850 mb
flow increases by early evening over MT which should aid in storm
sustenance and contribute to greater deep-layer shear and storm
organizational potential.

..Smith/Grams.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46660898 47970838 48930750 48980528 48360490 46810539
            46280651 45960776 45750843 46660898