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Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Texas to northern Louisiana and southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132132Z - 132330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop through
the late afternoon and early evening. These storms will pose a risk
for damaging winds and perhaps sporadic large hail. A watch is not
expected given the isolated nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the Texarkana
area and east TX/western LA as surface-based parcels reach their
convective temperatures within a diffuse stalled frontal boundary.
With temperatures exceeding 100 F across the region, dewpoint
depressions have increased to 30-40 F and are indicative of
steep-low level lapse rates (which are estimated to be between 8-9
C/km based on latest RAP mesoanalysis). Furthermore, RAP forecast
soundings hint that column theta-e deficits are between 20-30 K with
SBCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg and minimal inhibition. This
thermodynamic profile is favorable for strong downbursts capable of
damaging winds. Although mid-level temperatures are fairly warm
(above -10 C), sporadic large hail is possible with the stronger
updraft pulses given the favorable CAPE profiles and some mid-level
flow (around 20-25 knots based on regional VWPs). The propensity for
these threats will be correlated with storm coverage, but given the
limited forcing for ascent, storm coverage should be limited and
will negate the need for a watch.

..Moore/Grams.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30539371 29819609 30819707 31859694 33499598 34159544
            34389431 34239328 33519216 32949165 32079154 30979153
            30539157 30539371