SPC MD 1472

July 13, 2022, 03:16:57 PM

SPC MD 1472

[html]MD 1472 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN UT...EASTERN ID



Mesoscale Discussion 1472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...northern UT...eastern ID

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132131Z - 140000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts (60-70 mph) are
possible through the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic this
afternoon shows scattered high-based thunderstorms developing from
northwest UT northward into southeast ID.  The airmass has beco*e
marginally unstable (500 J/kg MLCAPE) per RAP forecast soundings. 
Deep-layer shear is relatively limited over the area with storm mode
favoring pulse to weakly organized multicells.  The very steep
surface to 400mb lapse rate, featuring inverted-v profiles, will
support ample evaporative cooling and the risk for severe gusts with
the stronger downdrafts.  The overall isolated character of the risk
for severe will likely preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm
watch.

..Smith/Grams.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON   44331181 44151260 43771309 40491401 40011378 39961266
            40301196 43711100 44191124 44331181

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Source: SPC MD 1472 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1472.html)