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Mesoscale Discussion 1470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...Portions of MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131944Z - 132215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for severe wind gusts will probably
warrant watch issuance this afternoon. Isolated hail may occur as
well.

DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
across the higher terrain of western MT as glancing ascent
associated with an upper trough over WA and BC overspreads the
northern Rockies and High Plains. Robust diurnal heating has
occurred across parts of western/central MT to the east of an area
of persistent cloudiness, with surface temperatures generally
warming into the low 90s. Corresponding mixing of the boundary layer
is supporting very steep and nearly dry adiabatic low-level lapse
rates. Although low-level moisture remains somewhat limited, there
is sufficient mid-level moisture to support robust convection.

Modest enhancement to the mid-level wind field is also present
across this region, sandwiched between the upper trough across WA/BC
and the prominent upper ridge centered over the Southwest into the
High Plains. Around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear appears
adequate for updraft organization. Multicell clusters should be the
dominant thunderstorm mode as convection spreads off the higher
terrain of the northern Rockies and into the adjacent northern High
Plains over the next several hours. Given the deeply mixed boundary
layer, scattered severe/damaging wind gusts should be the primary
threat. Some of these gusts may exceed 75 mph on an isolated basis.
Isolated large hail may also occur with the strongest embedded
cores. Given expectations for the severe wind threat to gradually
increase through the rest of the afternoon, Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance will probably be needed.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46371210 47831135 49021027 49020744 47150804 46070913
            45381023 45221125 45361217 46371210