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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MONTANA...AND PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and isolated hail
remain likely across western and central Montana, as will continue
over parts of Mississippi and Alabama.

...Discussion...
Convection continues to evolve in line with ongoing
reasoning/expectations as described in prior outlooks.  Thus, only
minor line tweaks are being implemented in this outlook update.

..Goss.. 07/13/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/

...MT this afternoon through late evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough over WA/southern BC will brush
western/northern MT while moving around the northwest periphery of
the ridge over the Four Corners.  Low-level moisture will be rather
limited across MT this afternoon, but there will be sufficient
midlevel moisture and surface heating/mixing for high-based
convection this afternoon/evening.  The more probable corridor for
afternoon storm development will be by mid afternoon over the higher
terrain of southwest MT, on the southeast edge of the more
persistent clouds this morning across west central/northwest MT. 
The co*bination of deep inverted-v profiles and 35-50 kt midlevel
flow will support storm clusters capable of producing severe outflow
winds from southwest into north central MT this evening.  

...Central MS/AL this afternoon...
Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across northern MS along a
slow-moving cold front, and a mesoscale outflow boundary is located
farther south from west central AL into northeast MS.  As surface
temperatures warm into the 90s and dewpoints remain in the low-mid
70s, additional thunderstorm development is expected.  Weak
northwesterly-northerly midlevel flow suggests that the storm
clusters should move slowly southeastward or southward, with a
tendency for new storm development toward the southwest, in the
direction of the maximum boundary-layer theta-e and largest buoyancy
over central MS.

...Southeast Atlantic states this afternoon...
A weak midlevel trough and belt of 30-50 kt midlevel flow is present
from southeast GA across the coastal Carolinas.  Pockets of surface
heating to the southeast of a thicker cloud band will support
scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon.  Low-level lapse
rates will not be particularly steep, but moderate buoyancy and the
somewhat enhanced midlevel flow could support isolated damaging
outflow gusts with multicell clusters.

...Northern OH and vicinity this afternoon...
In association with a midlevel trough over southeast Lower MI,
residual low-level moisture/daytime heating and weak buoyancy will
support thunderstorm development this afternoon.  Cool midlevel
temperatures and effective bulk shear around 35 kt could support a
few cells/clusters capable of producing marginally severe hail/wind.