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Mesoscale Discussion 1468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of southern Georgia into eastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131757Z - 131900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and isolated large hail may acco*pany the
stronger storms this afternoon, especially in SC into southern NC. A
WW issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...The co*bination of weak mid-level troughing, lee
surface troughing, and ample heating of a moist low-level airmass
has supported increased storm coverage/intensity across the
Southeast Atlantic Coastline within the past hour or so. The rich
low-level moisture and modest low-level lapse rates are contributing
to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE per 17Z mesoanalysis. In addition, RAP forecast
soundings show unidirectional (southwesterly) tropospheric flow, but
some speed shear in the surface-500 mb layer, contributing to 25-35
kts of effective bulk shear. As such, marginal organization of
stronger multicell clusters/transient supercells may support a
couple of damaging gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail this
afternoon. A locally more organized severe threat may also
materialize across eastern SC into far southern NC given the modest
shear profiles. A WW issuance is possible if storms continue to
intensify across SC.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
TAE...

LAT...LON   30798342 33408108 36167802 36577717 36387627 35927589
            35157646 33637878 32328014 31308111 30938146 30668249
            30798342