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Mesoscale Discussion 1467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Mississippi into extreme
western Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131736Z - 131900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe gust potential exists if storms should congeal
ahead of a pre-existing outflow boundary. A WW issuance is possible
if upscale-growing storms beco*e apparent.

DISCUSSION...Mainly elevated storms are in progress across northern
MS immediately north of an outflow boundary resulting from earlier
convection. This outflow boundary is in the process of stalling
along a northwest to southeast oriented line from just west of STF
to west of SEM. As the southward-moving convection in northern MS
crosses the boundary, the storms will ingest 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE
driven by surface temperatures/dewpoints above 90F/75F. Given robust
surface-850 mb mixing and 7+ C/km low-level lapse rates, severe
gusts may develop from the stronger storms, and a semi-organized
wind threat may materialize should storms grow upscale into a
convective cluster. Also, the 12Z JAN observed sounding shows
mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km. As such, an instance or
two of marginally severe hail may also occur.

Both observations and model guidance suggest weak tropospheric wind
fields and associated shear, so upscale growth/storm organization
will be entirely dependent on cold pool mergers. As such, convective
trends will be monitored through the afternoon for upscale growth
for the consideration of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33909075 33468934 33278858 32898758 32638726 32378725
            32038756 31868840 31688914 31718997 32009060 32269080
            33089099 33909075