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Mesoscale Discussion 1466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far southern Lower MI...northeastern
IN...and northern OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131726Z - 132030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail may
occur as thunderstorms move east-southeastward this afternoon. Watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
across far southern Lower MI along/near a weak surface front. This
convection is occurring beneath a mid/upper-level trough. Relatively
cool mid-level temperatures and daytime heating of a modestly moist
low-level airmass have contributed to the development of weak
instability from parts of southern Lower MI into northern IN/OH.
Generally weak west-northwesterly winds at low levels gradually
strengthen with height through mid levels. Around 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear should support modest updraft organization, with
mainly multicells possible. Isolated instances of strong/gusty winds
and marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust convection
as it moves east-southeastward this afternoon. The weak instability
is expected to limit the overall coverage and intensity of severe
thunderstorms, and watch issuance is not expected at this time.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   40828634 41368601 41978520 42158474 42118358 41238069
            40618078 40118223 40268539 40828634