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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible across parts
of the northern Plains and mid Missouri Valley on Thursday. A
marginal wind-damage threat may also develop in parts of the
Carolinas into Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A large upper ridge will remain anchored over the western and
central U.S., flanked by eastern Pacific and eastern U.S. troughing.
 
A resulting/largely weak surface pattern is expected across most of
the U.S., though a weak front lingering across the Southeast will
help focus thunderstorms through the period.

...Northern Rockies/northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest...
While a capped boundary layer across a large portion of the
north-central U.S. will hinder convective development through much
of the day, heating/destabilization -- particularly over the higher
terrain of the northern Rockies -- will likely yield isolated storm
development.  Given a belt of enhanced, anticyclonic
westerly/west-southwesterly flow aloft around the northern periphery
of the upper ridge, storms will spread into lower elevations with
time.  Given the dry/deep mixed layer, locally gusty/damaging winds
may occur near a few of the strongest storms.

Meanwhile, convective  initiation into the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest is difficult to quantify areally/temporally, given the
nebulous surface pattern.  Development will likely be loosely tied
to a short-wave disturbance moving through the anticyclonic belt of
flow, especially as a low-level jet strengthens nocturnally.  While
limited storm coverage expected at this time should temper overall
severe potential, ample west-northwesterly/northwesterly flow aloft
suggests that a few clusters of southeastward-moving storms will
evolve, which would likely be acco*panied by some risk for locally
damaging wind gusts and hail.  Such risk will likely continue well
into the evening, given low-level warm advection associated with the
aforementioned south-southwesterly low-level jet.

...The Southeast...
Diurnal heating/destabilization is expected across the Southeast in
the vicinity of a weak/remnant cold front expected to extend from
southeastern Virginia across the Carolinas, and westward across the
central Gulf Coast states.  Given the degree of destabilization,
weak ascent near this boundary will result in development of
scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region.  

While fairly modest shear will limit storm organization, some
clustering/upscale growth is expected, which could result in local
instances of gusty winds, and perhaps marginal hail, with
east-northeastward-moving storms.  Risk should diminish through the
evening, in tandem with gradual diurnal stabilization.

..Goss.. 07/13/2022