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Mesoscale Discussion 0482
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of central/northern LA into
southern/central MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 123...

Valid 132036Z - 132200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 123 continues.

SUMMARY...c*nvection is slowly increasing in coverage and intensity.
Should semi-discrete cells ahead of the cold front beco*e better
organized, the tornado threat will increase over the next 1-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection continues to increase across
northern/central LA this afternoon. An additional band of convection
is also noted along a weak low-level confluence band from near HEZ
in MS to BTR in LA. Moderate instability resides across the region
where upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints are in place.
Convection has still been struggling to organized, despite effective
shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt and sufficient large-scale
ascent. Of note in visible satellite loops is that while storm
motion is toward the northeast, the anvils attached to stronger
storms have been spreading east or even southeast. This is
consistent with forecast hodographs showing backed midlevel winds,
and as a result, some cooling within (from anvil shadow), and
precipitation into storm inflow, may be occurring, ultimately
causing issues for storm organization.

With time, RAP forecast hodographs across parts of northern LA into
central MS improve and would allow convection to beco*e better
organized and updrafts to remain sustained over a longer time period
within the favorable thermodynamic environment. If this occurs, any
discrete convection would see an increase in tornado potential, with
perhaps a strong tornado or two occurring over the next 1-3 hours.
Otherwise, convection further west should consolidate near the cold
front into early evening with an attendant risk for damaging gusts
and QLCS tornadoes.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31919343 32489281 33119167 33449109 33619042 33609012
            33468995 32988985 32398987 32099001 31589039 31319093
            31199150 31129201 31059245 31099282 31129312 31189327
            31299336 31659346 31919343