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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MT...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and isolated hail
will be possible across western and central Montana vicinity.
Isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible across portions of
the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will remain centered over the Four Corners throughout
the day Wednesday, while modest upper troughing persists over
eastern Canada and the eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave
trough currently moving through the Upper Midwest is forecast to
continue southeastward through the Upper Great Lakes/OH Valley.
Modest buoyancy will precede this shortwave, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms across the region. Displacement north of the better
low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy is expected to limit the
severe potential.

Farther west, the shortwave trough currently off the coast of
British Columbia is expected to progress eastward, reaching as far
east as central Saskatchewan by early Thursday. 

Primary feature within the surface pattern will be the cold front
extending from northern VA southwestward across northern portions of
the Southeast States into southern AR. This boundary is forecast to
beco*e largely stationary, and will be the focus for thunderstorm
development during the afternoon and evening.

...Western/Central MT...
A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
northwestern periphery of the Four Corners ridging. Ascent attendant
to this shortwave (as well as glancing ascent related to the British
Columbia shortwave) should reach western MT during the afternoon.
Strong boundary-layer heating is anticipated ahead of this ascent,
resulting in modest buoyancy, despite modest low-level moisture.
This co*bination of ascent and buoyancy will result in the
development of thunderstorms, which are then expected to move
northeastward into more of central MT during the late afternoon.
High-based character of these storms should result gusty outflow,
including the potential for isolated significant gusts. 

...Southeast...
Warm and moist conditions will persist across the region on
Wednesday, with the cold front stretched across northern portions of
the region acting as the impetus for convective initiation.
Deep-layer shear will be weak, so most storms should be
outflow-dominant and multicellular. Even so, a few water-loaded
downbursts are possible. 

Potential exists for the development of a convectively induced
vorticity maximum along the central Gulf Coast tonight. This
vorticity maximum would then be expected to eject northeastward
across GA and SC. Enhanced low to mid-level flow throughout its the
eastern periphery could contribute to an area of more favorable
shear. Limited predictability of this scenario, as well as
uncertainty regarding the strength of the low to mid-level flow,
preclude introduce higher probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier/Moore.. 07/13/2022