Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...Western Nebraska to northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 130030Z - 130230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across western
Nebraska and into northeast Colorado will continue to pose a
hail/wind threat into the late evening hours. This threat should
remain too limited to necessitate a watch.

DISCUSSION...Across northern NE, a lone supercell has developed
along a diffuse warm front over the past hour with weaker convection
developing on the periphery of this cell. This activity is maturing
in an environment that remains relatively uncapped with around 1300
J/kg SBCAPE (per the 00 UTC LBF sounding). The sampled wind over the
region show a modest supercell profile with veering winds in the
lowest 3 km that is aiding in cell organization. Cells developing
along the front may mature enough for cell propagation to the
south/southeast over the next 1-2 hours. If this occurs, a hail/wind
threat will be likely. Given the weak forcing for ascent,
thunderstorm coverage is expected to be minimal. 

To the southwest across northeast CO, reflectivity and velocity data
from KCYS and KFTG show thunderstorm development along an outflow
boundary that is propagating to the south/southeast. Individual
cells will likely pose a brief window for severe hail while
convectively reinforcing the cold pool to sustain propagation.
Latest hi-res guidance suggests that this activity may beco*e
sufficiently organized to pose a slightly more robust severe wind
risk across parts of northeast CO within the next few hours.
However, confidence in the coverage of this threat remains limited
the propensity for destructive storm interactions observed over the
past 30-60 minutes and diminishing instability in the downstream
environment.

..Moore/Grams.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41440384 42500340 42860210 42720027 42179981 41400000
            40880061 40080177 39630269 39650369 40130412 41440384