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SPC MD 1464

SPC MD 1464

[html]MD 1464 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA
       
MD 1464 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...south-central and eastern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 130025Z - 130200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts (50-60 mph) are possible to the
southeast of severe thunderstorm watches 464, 465.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of broken linear
thunderstorm clusters over northern VA extending east to the
Delmarva and farther southwest into southwest VA.  This activity is
moving east-southeastward and will likely exit the existing severe
thunderstorm watches over the next 60-90 minutes (prior to 10pm). 
However, a gradually cooling boundary layer will likely lead to a
slow but notable decrease in both the coverage and intensity of the
stronger gusts.  A recent measured severe gust (60 mph) at Quantico,
VA was observed at 810pm, along with a 49 mph gust at Roanoke, VA. 
Current expectation is for strong to locally severe gusts to perhaps
continue a little beyond the existing severe thunderstorm watches. 
However, the coverage/intensity of gusts will likely lessen by 10pm
and likely preclude the need for a small severe thunderstorm watch.

..Smith/Grams.. 07/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   36827949 37707823 38047761 38067673 37847618 37417701
            36687856 36517933 36827949


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Source: SPC MD 1464 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1464.html)