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Mesoscale Discussion 1461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...Central to southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122144Z - 122345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to severe storms will likely continue
through the evening hours and will pose a risk of severe hail and
downburst winds in the immediate lee of the Rockies. This threat
will most likely remain fairly isolated, and a watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...VWPs along the high Plains of CO and southeast WY show
relatively weak flow throughout most of the column. Despite the poor
deep-layer shear across the region, thunderstorms that have
developed off the high terrain over the past couple of hours are
effectively utilizing the 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and steep mid-level
lapse rates (between 8-9 C/km per latest RAP forecast soundings).
Short-lived, but intense updrafts in the lee of the Rockies have
produced several one-inch hail stones over the past hour or so. This
trend will likely continue through the remainder of the evening
hours. In additional to severe hail, steep low-level lapse rates
near 9 C/km may also support the potential for strong downburst
winds. Storm propagation into the CO Plains appears possible if a
consolidated outflow can beco*e established, otherwise lingering
MLCIN may confine this threat to the immediate lee of the terrain
features. Overall, the limited longevity of individual cells and
spatial confinement mitigate the need for a watch.

..Moore/Grams.. 07/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35990553 37000548 38100541 39120526 40510547 41560534
            41730454 41420369 40320334 38050329 37050339 36450370
            36060410 35920453 35800509 35990553