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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

The isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly
northeast across northwest UT into far southern ID, based on the
latest thunderstorm guidance. The Elevated area has been expanded
westward across northeast CA into south-central OR, where sustained
winds of 15-20 mph appear possible concurrent with minimum RH values
of 15-20%. Otherwise, the previous reasoning remains valid. See the
previous discussion below for more information.

..Dean.. 07/12/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain across the Great Basin for today
and will likely emerge for portions of the northern Sierra into
southern OR. Upper-level ridging over the Four Corners will continue
to foster thunderstorm chances across the Great Basin. A thermal low
over northern NV will support breezy conditions across southern
portions of the state, while a weak mid-level wave will support
windy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest. 

...Nevada...
Ensemble guidance continues to show fairly high probability in
sustained winds between 15-20 mph across southern NV in response to
the diurnal deepening of a thermal low to the north. Deep
boundary-layer mixing may allow for a few gusts above 20 mph, but
generally weak flow aloft will limit the potential for critical wind
speeds. Poor moisture recovery and hot afternoon temperatures will
support another day of RH values near 10-15%. This, co*bined with
antecedent dry fuels, will support elevated fire weather conditions.

...Northern Sierra Nevada...
Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a mid-level impulse
embedded within the mean southwesterly flow that is in place across
the Pacific Northwest. This feature will not only support increasing
thunderstorm chances across the region, but will also enhance
boundary-layer flow across the northern Sierra Nevada into southern
OR along and ahead of a surface trough. Most solutions suggest
sustained winds between 15-20 mph will be co*mon with locally
stronger winds possible in the lee of terrain features. Dry fine
fuels and afternoon RH values near 15-20% will support elevated fire
weather conditions. 

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Monsoonal moisture lingers across the great Four Corners region and
has increased across much of the Great Basin and West Coast per 00
UTC soundings. Most soundings continue to show sufficient mid-level
moisture to support 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop deep, dry boundary
layers. These thermodynamic profiles are expected to linger through
the day (per forecast soundings) and will support dry thunderstorms
across parts of the Great Basin, central Sierra Nevada, and across
parts of the Pacific Northwest. While dry lightning is possible
across all these regions, the risk area denotes locations where
regional fuels are sufficiently dry to support a fire weather
concern. Thunderstorms with occasional dry lightning are possible
across central UT where fuels remain dry, but guidance remains
consistent in showing a stronger QPF signal for today co*pared to
previous days.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...