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Mesoscale Discussion 1454
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northern NY/VT into PA and far northern
NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121540Z - 121745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The overall severe threat should gradually increase into
the afternoon, with both damaging winds and hail possible. One or
more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will probably be needed.

DISCUSSION...An upper trough evident on water vapor satellite
imagery over the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec will continue
eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today. Rather strong
mid-level flow of 45-55+ kt will acco*pany the upper trough, and aid
in strong effective bulk shear and updraft organization. Partly to
mostly sunny conditions are ongoing across much of NY/VT into PA.
Continued diurnal heating will likely result in surface temperatures
increasing into well into the 80s and lower 90s later this
afternoon. MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop ahead of a
poorly defined cold front. Weak convergence along/ahead of this
boundary and ascent associated with the upper trough will aid robust
thunderstorm development over the next couple of hours. Deep-layer
shear of 45-50+ kt will support some potential for supercells with
both a hail and damaging wind threat. Still, most guidance suggests
that a line of convection should eventually consolidate with
eastward extent into eastern NY/PA later this afternoon. If this
evolution occurs, then damaging winds should beco*e the primary
severe hazard. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will probably
be needed from parts of northern NY/VT into PA and vicinity to
address this gradually increasing severe threat.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40137994 43567509 45067340 45057209 44487223 43447286
            41307439 40367559 39947635 39757779 39737942 40137994