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Mesoscale Discussion 0478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Southwestern North Dakota

Concerning...Blizzard 

Valid 131800Z - 132200Z

SUMMARY...Increasing low level winds across southwest North Dakota
through the afternoon will likely maintain, or possibly intensify,
ongoing blizzard conditions.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations show the synoptic low over
eastern North Dakota. This feature is expected to meander to the
north/northeast through the afternoon in conjunction with the
east/southeastward pivot of the upper-level trough axis. As this
occurs, winds in the 0-1 km layer are expected to increase to 40-50
knots out of the northwest across southwest ND. The nearly
uni-directional wind profile through this layer, co*bined with steep
low-level lapse rates, will support the potential for frequent
surface wind gusts up to 50-60 mph. Although the main axis of
frontogenetical precipitation will likely shift north into Canada
through the afternoon, these winds will occur over areas that have
seen recent snowfall totals between 15 to 20 inches. Even without
heavy falling snow, blowing snow model probabilities suggests that
winds gusting in excess of 45 mph will be sufficient to maintain
widespread blizzard conditions.

..Moore.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   47860349 47340365 46700347 46090303 45870255 45870151
            46140124 46560104 46980105 47220118 47500161 47680228
            47970261 48120300 48120331 47860349