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Mesoscale Discussion 1451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Areas affected...Central/Eastern IL...Western/Central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 112040Z - 112245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has been observed over the last hour
or so along the weak wind shift/area of low-level convergence over
central IL. Recent mesoanalysis suggests some convective inhibition
remains in place, which is likely responsible for the lack of
convective initiation and somewhat flat appearance to the cumulus
thus far. Some potential for convective initiation will persist into
the late afternoon as this area of low-level convergence shifts
southeastward. Warm low to mid-level temperatures and weak low-level
convergence will likely limit the overall thunderstorm coverage,
duration and intensity. Vertical shear is strong enough to support
an isolated severe threat if updrafts can mature. Primary severe
threat would be damaging wind gusts, although some isolated hail is
possible too.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39668979 40498785 40898615 39988604 38948919 39668979