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Mesoscale Discussion 1446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Areas affected...central Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458...

Valid 110858Z - 111030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat for severe
wind gusts across parts of central Iowa the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The cluster of thunderstorms across western IA will
continue to track northeast around 40-45 kt over the next couple of
hours. Additional thunderstorms have developed to the north of the
main bowing cluster along a southeastward-advancing cold front.
Ahead of these storms, surface dewpoints in the low 70s beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to strong instability
(3000+ J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is somewhat modest, and
strong boundary-layer inhibition may limit development of a larger
bowing MCS. Nevertheless, several severe gusts have been measured
the past couple of hours, with the most recent observation from
Denison IA reporting a 56 kt gust. This cluster of storms will
continue to pose a threat for severe gusts the next couple of hours
as convection tracks along the instability gradient in the vicinity
of the surface front. Depending on convective trends over the next
30-60 minutes, a local watch extension may be needed over parts of
central IA.

..Leitman.. 07/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42289572 42659506 42909435 42899360 42819310 42559300
            42059307 41499411 41379485 41519549 41739582 42289572