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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
A large area of high pressure will be in place across much of the
western and central United States from Thursday to Saturday. At the
top of the ridge, moderate instability will likely develop in the
Dakotas each afternoon. A capping inversion is forecast to hold
throughout much of the region Thursday afternoon. However, the cap
may beco*e weaker Thursday evening in northern North Dakota near the
Canadian border. In this area, a few storms could develop capable of
an isolated severe threat.

Model forecasts suggest a shortwave trough could ride up and over
the northern edge of the high on Friday. If this were to happen, a
severe threat would be possible in a moderately unstable airmass
across parts of the Dakotas Friday afternoon and evening. This
trough is forecast to move southeastward into the mid Mississippi
Valley on Saturday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible
ahead of the trough, along the instability axis. Any threat that
develops on Friday or Saturday, will be conditional upon the exact
distribution of instability and the timing of the shortwave trough.
This adds considerable uncertainty to the forecast at this range. A
threat area could need to be added for Friday in parts of the
Dakotas, if the models continue to show severe potential with
run-to-run consistency.

...Sunday/Day 7 to Monday/Day 8...
The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great
Lakes on Sunday and into the Northeast on Monday. A potential for
isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the trough each
afternoon and evening. Model forecasts have a large spread of
solutions concerning the instability on Sunday. This problem
continues on Monday, but the GFS does show a pocket of moderate
instability in the Northeast. If this where to happen, then an
isolated severe threat would be possible in parts of New England
Monday afternoon. However, the GFS solution appears to be an
outlier, and uncertainty is substantial late in the Day 4 to 8
period.