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Mesoscale Discussion 1444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...central into eastern Nebraska...western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 110355Z - 110600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms over central Nebraska may produce
isolated severe gusts or hail as it continues east toward the
Missouri River tonight. Forecast longevity and intensity is
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Storms previously over southwest NE have consolidated
into a larger cluster, currently over Custer County, and within the
surface theta-e axis. While winds aloft and deep-layer shear is not
very strong, area VWPs indicate a modest southwesterly low-level jet
developing with up to 30 kt at 850 mb. This would ordinarily aid
storm organization, but it appears drier air is being advected
northeastward out of KS. Lapse rates aloft remain steep, and this
will maximize updraft strength in co*bination with the zone of 70s F
dewpoints. Trends will be watched closely for intensification or
upscale growth of this cluster, and possible damaging wind risk
which could necessitate a watch later tonight.

..Jewell/Hart.. 07/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41739979 42159846 43129555 42999486 42499473 41779490
            41159567 40989605 40739678 40889812 41029921 41130002
            41410011 41739979