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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the
northern and central Plains tonight.

...Northern/Central Plains...

Water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over central
MT moving east-southeast toward the western Dakotas. Over the last
few hours, scattered convection has evolved ahead of this feature
within an upslope regime along over southern MT immediately north of
a strengthening frontal surge. While moisture/instability are not
that significant, large-scale support aloft and favorable low-level
convergence suggest some organization may occur with this relatively
high-based convection as it spreads toward the Black Hills. 00z
sounding from UNR was not impressive by early July standards with
only 500 J/kg MUCAPE, although adequately sheared for organized
updrafts. Will maintain SLGT Risk across this region for the
possibility of gusty winds with storms ahead of the short wave.

Farther south across the central High Plains, 00z sounding from LBF
exhibited around 4000 J/kg SBCAPE with modest surface-6km shear and
1.2 inch PW. Scattered storms are gradually organizing along a
boundary from northeast CO into south-central NE. Over the next few
hours some strengthening of the LLJ is expected across western KS
into southern NE along this boundary. This may allow for further
clustering and increase the likelihood for gusty winds with this
convection.

..Darrow.. 07/11/2022