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Mesoscale Discussion 1441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...Northwest to north-central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 102148Z - 102345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk
for large hail and severe winds this evening. Storm coverage remains
uncertain, but trends will be monitored for the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a few thunderstorms
developing across northwest ND ahead of an upper-level shortwave
perturbation. Although much of ND resides within a post-frontal
regime with westerly winds and gradual drying from the west,
boundary-layer moisture ahead of the developing cells (where
dewpoints are in the mid 60s) is supporting adequate mixed-layer
buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg) for further thunderstorm development.
However, RAP forecast soundings hint that dry mid-level air co*bined
with slim CAPE profiles may result in considerable dry air
entertainment that could hinder convective intensity in the absence
of stronger forcing for ascent. Low-level water vapor imagery and
MRMS vertical ice and echo top trends appear to be bearing out this
scenario, at least for the near term. It is possible that storms can
intensify with the approach of the upper wave in the co*ing hours.
Strong flow aloft associated with this feature is yielding elongated
hodographs that may support a few strong/severe cells capable of
pose a large hail/severe wind risk if intensification can take
place. Trends will continue to be monitored as storms move eastward
into north-central ND through the evening hours.

..Moore.. 07/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49050377 49089983 48429875 47579878 47079980 46970089
            47200183 47580309 48000368 48740388 49050377