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Mesoscale Discussion 1436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...Northern MN...MN Arrowhead

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455...

Valid 101449Z - 101615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455
continues.

SUMMARY...The ongoing convective line will likely persist into more
of northern MN and the MN Arrowhead, with an attendant threat for
damaging wind gusts. A new watch is being considered across these
areas.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line continues to progress eastward
across northern MN at around 40-45 kt. Southern portion of the line
has maintained its intensity better than the northern portion.
Recent radar also shows a more well-defined rear-inflow jet with the
southern portion of the line. However, the air mass downstream of
this southern portion of line is less buoyant that farther northern,
largely as a result warm mid-level temperatures. Even so, the
thermodynamics should improve slightly amid diurnal heating and
modest moisture advection. 

Given the organized character of the southern portion of the line,
the expectation is that it will persist for at least the next few
hours. Current storm motion places this portion of the line at the
edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455 around 1515-1530Z. The threat
for damaging wind gusts will likely persist, and a new watch is
being considered downstream across northern MN/MN Arrowhead.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   47969598 48779617 49039544 48729353 48019243 46829270
            46259415 46219529 46549627 47969598