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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the northern High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley
Sunday afternoon and evening. A few strong storms may occur from
southeast Texas into southern Louisiana.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...

Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern MT early this
morning suppressing the height field atop the western US ridge. An
MCS has evolved ahead of this feature from southern SK into
northeast MT which should propagate into central ND by daybreak. In
response to the short wave, surface low will track across northern
SD into MN where it will weaken along an advancing frontal zone that
should stretch from the Arrowhead region-FSD-central NE by 11/00z.
While severe may be ongoing at the start of the period, there is
reason to believe this co*plex of storms could weaken by mid-late
morning as it advances toward the upper MS Valley. Given the
large-scale support aloft, co*plete dissipation is not expected and
the primary question is to what degree robust convection develops in
the wake of the MCS debris field along the advancing frontal zone.
Latest hr** model guidance suggests the most likely corridor for
redevelopment will be across the upper Red River Valley region where
inhibition will be considerably weaker than across portions of SD
into southern MN. While this late afternoon convection would develop
in the wake of the aforementioned short wave, it appears frontal
convergence will likely prove adequate for renewed development.
Strong shear suggests supercells are possible, but the primary risks
should be hail/wind.

Farther west across the northern High Plains, surface pressure rises
across MT will create a narrow corridor of favorable upslope flow
along the MT/WY border by late afternoon as a secondary surface
boundary strengthens and advances south during the evening. While PW
values will not be particularly moist (around 1 inch), strong
surface heating and orographic influences should aid at least
isolated robust development. Forecast soundings suggest strongly
sheared storms could generate gusty winds as high-based supercells
spread southeast toward the Black Hills region.

...Southeast TX/Southern LA...

Strengthening northwesterly flow across the MS Valley into the Mid
South region will ensure a surface boundary sags south across LA,
arcing west into south-central TX. Very strong surface heating will
allow temperatures to soar above 100F across southeast TX with mid
90s into southwest LA. While deep-layer flow will be weak along this
corridor, high PW values and warm temperatures should contribute to
a few robust updrafts. Forecast soundings across southeast TX
suggest cloud bases may be near 3km AGL and this may contribute to
gusty downdrafts due to relatively low sub-cloud RH values.

..Darrow/Moore.. 07/10/2022