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SPC MD 1429

SPC MD 1429

[html]MD 1429 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTH TX INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR/NORTHWEST LA
       
MD 1429 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Areas affected...Central/north TX into extreme southwest
AR/northwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 092057Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds are
possible late this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon across parts of central and north TX, generally in the
vicinity of diffuse and weak frontal zone. Deep-layer flow/shear is
weak, but with temperatures rising into the 102-107 F range and
generally large DCAPE across the region, isolated downbursts will be
possible as pulse storms intensify and then collapse. Some weak
clustering is also possible as outflows consolidate, though
convection is generally expected to remain disorganized. The
isolated damaging wind threat will be diurnal in nature and tend to
diminish this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   33249766 33519537 33619419 33679357 33249327 32469306
            32129572 31659720 31319854 31099988 31660057 32400041
            32719951 32909887 33249766


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Source: SPC MD 1429 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1429.html)